CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-01T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-01T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26703/-1
CME Note: Bright, wide, and fast CME seen emanating to the west-northwest in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery in association with a long-duration M1.2-class solar flare from Active Region 13413 (N09W70) and significant eruptive signature consisting of rising and "snapping" plasma seen best in SDO 304, a fast EUV wave seen off the limb moving to the east, quickly and rapidly opening magnetic field lines off the west-northwestern limb in SDO 193 and SDO 171 as well as a post-eruptive arcade signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-03T17:01Z (-8.86h, +10.29h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/09/01 03:20Z
Plane of Sky 1: 05:20Z; 19.5Rsun; NW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 10:00Z; 19.5Rsun; SE Direction
POS Difference: 4:40
POS Midpoint: 07:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:20

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~14.23
Travel Time: ~14.23 * 4:20 = 61:41

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-09-03T17:01Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Lead Time: 51.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-09-01T13:59Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy